08/04/24
As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found four players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (6Pt Passing TD). Two will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and two will be lower.
Despite finishing within the top three last season, he is drafted on the edge of the top ten behind names like Jordan Love and Anthony Richardson. While I understand the upside behind those names, people underestimate Prescott's upside. He finished with over 4,400 passing yards and 35 touchdowns in two of the last three seasons. The team let Tony Pollard test the market and signed Ezekiel Elliot to replace him. That doesn't sound like the running game will be a core part of the offense. But what separates Dak from names like C.J. Stroud and Joe Burrow is his diminishing ability as a rushing threat. He isn't the redzone threat he was earlier in his career, but he has scored a rushing touchdown every season. If he coincidentally scores two touchdowns, that could be enough to propel him into the top-five conversation. If he's available after the first five rounds, he's an easy pick unless I find value in other positions.
After finishing outside the top 12 last season, he is now drafted outside the top 15 and in the double-digit rounds. I would be targeting him a little earlier, but he's an easy pick if he's there in the 10th or 11th round. He's reached 4,000 passing yards in consecutive seasons, and the team brought in Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. to replace Calvin Ridley's departure. The passing volume will not decrease from last season, and he'll likely throw for more touchdowns than last season (21). What also helps Lawrence is their ability as a rushing threat, finishing with at least four rushing touchdowns in consecutive seasons. While it's not enough to boost him into the top 12, a top 15 finish is possible. That necessarily won't win you a league, but he is a perfect complement if you end up rostering two QBs or are in a superflex league.
I understand the excitement for this brand-new CHI offense. They drafted the #1 overall pick, traded for Keenan Allen, and drafted Rome Odunze with a top-ten pick. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet are still there, and they signed D'Andre Swift to help with the rushing offense. It's hard not to think that the QB with these weapons will not finish in the top 12. I'd rather take my shot on Jayden Daniels, who has a higher upside, or Jared Goff, who has shown to be a capable option. I believe Williams will have good games and can be a good streaming option, but I don't see the value in drafting him as a top-12 QB when guys like Tua Tagovailoa are available. At that ADP, you're drafting him to be a top-12 option in the first few games on an offense we have yet to see. In leagues where you only start one quarterback, the uncertainty is too much for me, and I'll draft other options instead.
After his breakout rookie season, it's important to remember he finished outside of the top 5 and is now drafted as the 5th/6th QB in most leagues. He is expected to take the next step in his second season, which sounds reasonable since the team acquired Stefan Diggs and Joe Mixon in the offseason to complement Nico Collins and Tank Dell. I don't anticipate a sophomore slump, but expecting that jump is worth the fourth-round ADP is too much, considering names like Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Dak Prescott are proven top 10 options with top 5 upside. He did finish with three rushing touchdowns last season, but he isn't a rushing threat like Daniel Jones or Deshaun Watson, who aren't prolific rushing QBs. This makes him a top-ten option but not a top-five, preventing me from rostering him this season.