As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found four players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (6Pt Passing TD). Two will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and two will be lower.
After the best season in the last four years, he threw for more touchdowns than his 2023 & 2024 seasons combined! While he has thrown for over 4,000 yards in ten seasons, his touchdowns range from 20 to 41, and I lean toward 30+ with Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams returning. Of course, I expect regression, which doesn't give him top-five upside. The defense improved, which means the offense needs to do less. Maybe they score a few more rushing touchdowns? However, he should be in consideration for the top 12 in six-point passing touchdown leagues. I understand Joe Burrow is in a different tier, but Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott are in the same tier for me, and I'm comfortable with Stafford as my Week 1 QB.
Over the last four seasons, Goff has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns each season, throwing 71 touchdowns over the last two seasons. With David Montgomery going to Houston, I expect Goff to continue throwing 30+ touchdowns. He won't be great every game, but the WR1 and RB1 of this offense are arguably top-3 in their positions. Don't forget Jameson Williams, who had consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. This DET offense could finish #1, and Goff could be what Matthew Stafford was last season. It only seems logical that the QB will also be a weekly starter with top-five upside in six-point passing touchdown leagues. His lack of rushing production caps his ceiling, but with everyone healthy, his floor is higher than that of a few QBs drafted before him.
Over the last three seasons with coach Jim Harbaugh, Herbert has yet to throw for 4,000 yards and has surpassed 25 passing touchdowns only once, which was last season. He is not on an offense where he will throw for over 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. While he is capable as a rusher (over 300 yards in consecutive seasons), it isn't enough to draft him ahead of guys like Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, and Brock Purdy, who have higher upside. The offensive line is healthy, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are still there, and they brought in Mike McDaniel to revamp this offense. I think there'll be a noticeable improvement, and he may have his best season in the Harbaugh era, but not enough to draft him where he is.
Drafted late in the first round, it wouldn't be a stretch to say he outperformed expectations in his rookie season, where he threw at least two touchdowns in five of the 12 games he played while rushing for almost 500 yards and nine touchdowns with their star WR injured. Now in his sophomore season, the team added a tight end and some WR depth to replace Wan'Dale Robinson's 140 targets. With many narratives suggesting he will continue to be a dual-threat QB, I wonder if his rushing touchdowns are due for a regression while his passing numbers jump with Nabers playing. However, ADP is a factor, and when I can draft similar players on better offenses like Bo Nix and Brock Purdy a round or two later, I don't find myself drafting Dart in single-QB leagues.