08/04/24
As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found eight players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Three will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and three will be lower.
After a disappointing season where he struggled with injuries, the team decided to re-sign him to a new multi-year deal guaranteeing $17 million. The team replaced Ezekiel Elliot with Antonio Gibson which does limit Stevenson's target share but confirms that Stevenson is the lead rushing option on this team. The team drafted a rookie QB and signed Jacoby Brissett, so it's safe to expect this to be a run-heavy offense where Stevenson can be a safe but unspectacular RB2 who will get plenty of opportunities. He finished with 1,000 rushing yards and 69 catches in 2022, a short time ago. There is concern that the struggling offense will hurt Stevenson's floor (he has yet to surpass five rushing TDs in a season), and he doesn't have top-12 upside. Still, I would prefer him over David Montgomery, D'andre Swift, and James Conner, who are drafted ahead of him in most leagues.
This one surprises me since I wasn't high on him last season and was proved wrong after his strong second half, where the team committed to the run and James Cook became a primary component of the offense. He finished with more than 15 carries in five of the last seven games of the season, where he had only one rushing touchdown. His lack of touchdowns is a genuine concern. It would continue to be if the team didn't reaffirm their commitment to the run by trading away Stefon Diggs and replacing Gabe Davis with Curtis Samuel and second-round rookie Keon Coleman. Because of this, the team will be a run-heavy offense where Cook can gain a larger share of redzone touches. I also think he'll have a more significant role as a receiver, not a considerable amount, but enough to put him in my top ten while drafted outside of the top 12.
This one feels gross, and I thought about choosing another name, but I consider him a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside, depending on the quality of the offense. The team drafted Bo Nix, traded for Zach Wilson, and signed Jarrett Stidham. They drafted rookie RB Audric Estime, while Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine remain on the roster. He looked awful last season, and there aren't any reasons to be optimistic besides being healthier than last season. With so many risks, I can't have him in my top 24, but to see him drafted in the double-digit rounds in some leagues is too far. He will be the lead back in the committee and is a capable receiver, so if the offense is a little better than what we think, he can outperform an ADP outside of the top 30. He's not someone I'm actively targeting, but I won't recoil in disgust if I end up with him in my drafts.
This one is tough because I believe he's an RB1 with a top-five upside. I'm just not interested in drafting a lead back in a committee within the second round when guys like Travis Etienne and Kyren Williams are still available and are the workhorses on their respective offenses. David Montgomery missed a couple of games last season, and Gibbs finished outside of the top eight but may get drafted within the top five in some leagues. While Gibbs is a receiving threat, he isn't on the level of CMC or Saquon Barkley, finishing with 71 targets last season (less than five per game). He will compete with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, who are among the top five options in their respective positions. It'd be different if you drafted him in the third round, where guys like Josh Jacobs and Isaiah Pacheco are available, and the potential upside makes Gibbs the best option, but not at his current ADP.
For the record, I think Nick Chubb will bounce back from his horrific injury and become a top-24 RB in fantasy football again. I just don't believe it will be this season. With the injury happening in September, he may not miss any games this upcoming season. However, I expect him to miss games this season and not immediately look like his old self in the first few games of his return. While Jerome Ford wasn't super impressive, he was a capable starting option, and I expect them not to rush Chubb back if he's not 100%. Drafted within the top 30 RBs, that's too risky for me when I can roster names like Zach Moss, Brian Robinson, and Jaylen Warren (in PPR formats). I don't believe Chubb will miss more than a couple of games, but I don't expect he will be getting a full workload either, and it won't be easy to decide to start him every week. If he falls outside the top 36, I would be more interested in taking a chance as my RB4.
After finishing in the top eight last season, he's currently drafted outside of the top 12, being on the HOU offense as their lead rushing threat, along with rookie star C.J. Stroud at quarterback. So why is he overrated? In my opinion, it's not by much. Mixon is a solid RB2 that will have some RB1 games every now and then. My uncertainty is when he's drafted ahead of names like James Cook and Alvin Kamara. I prefer those two because their opportunity in the passing game is the 2nd/3rd option in some games while Mixon is competing against three good WRs (Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Stefan Diggs) and a capable Dalton Schultz. His target share, which he had in CIN, will be smaller in HOU, and in a competitive field of RB2, it drops him a few spots lower in my rankings. His ADP is reasonable, but it would take him falling a couple of spots before he ends up on my roster.