As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found eight players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Three will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and three will be lower.
Most people understand the dilemma when it comes to one of the best RBs in the league, if he can stay on the field (played at least eight games in two of the last five seasons). During those two seasons, he has surpassed 1,800 all-purpose yards and scored double-digit touchdowns as one of the best dual-threat players and will continue to have that role within the offense that's already dealing with injuries to WR Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and RB Isaac Guerendo. He's currently being drafted after guys like Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty, and Derrick Henry, who are top 5 options in their own right, but don't have the same upside to be the RB1, whether it's their role (Gibbs), skill-set (Henry), or offense (Jeanty). Fantasy football is about managing risk, and if I don't have a top-five pick, CMC will likely be my choice unless Saquon or Bijan are available.
I may be biased as a Packers fan, but I continued to be impressed with how efficient Jones is with his touches and his ability to be one of the better receiving RBs in the league. Over the past six seasons, he has played at least 14 games in a season and surpassed 1000 rushing yards in four of those seasons, while surpassing 45 catches in those seasons, adding another 350 yards in the air. Failing to finish in the double-digits with rushing and receiving touchdowns combined since 2021, Jones is no longer a top 15 option, but he could finish within the top 20 and should be drafted ahead of players as TreVeon Henderson and Joe Mixon. With J.J. McCarthy entering his second year, I can imagine the team being a little more run-heavy than usual as they start the season, so the addition of Jordan Mason won't hurt Jones's role to the point of falling outside of the top 24 in PPR scoring leagues.
This name may be surprising, given the team drafted two RBs (Quinton Judkins and Dylan Sampson), who would either compete in a committee or take over Ford's role within the offense last season as the backup to Nick Chubb, who is no longer on the team. With Judkins remaining unsigned at this point in the off-season and dealing with legal issues off the field, there's some concern about his role during the first few games of the season if he's not suspended. Sampson is not expected to be a lead back and will likely support Ford if Judkins is not playing. While the CLE offense isn't great, that opportunity gives Ford a chance to contribute as a flex/RB3 option until Judkins returns. Drafted outside of the top 40 RB, he's an underrated value to be targeted ahead of Tank Bigsby, Najee Harris, and Tyjae Spears, who don't have the same upside early in the season.
This one is tough because I believe he's an RB1 with a top-five upside. I'm just not interested in drafting a lead back in a commOne of my weaknesses is projecting rookie RBs that are in a potential timeshare. I tend to underrate the upside rookie RBs have, and yet here I am again. The departure of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards opened up a huge opportunity for Hampton to take on the lead role within a run-heavy offense that scored 17 touchdowns last season. They also signed Najee Harris, who is dealing with an eye injury that may cause him to miss the season opener. At this point, how could he be overrated then? He's drafted ahead of Chuba Hubbard and James Conner, both of whom are 1,000-yard rushers on their teams and the lead option. Another name is David Montgomery, who scored 25 touchdowns over the last two seasons. The injury to Rashawn Slater hurts the upside of the entire offense, and with the eventual return of Harris, it has Hampton closer to top-24 than top-15.
Coming off an injury-plagued season where he missed nine games, he returned for five, where he exceeded 50 rushing yards once and surpassed ten carries twice. He may bounce back to his pre-injury role as the lead back, but the team re-signed Kareem Hunt and added Elijah Mitchell for depth and potentially a committee where Hunt and Pacheco nearly split touches (51 for Pacheco vs 47 for Hunt over their last five games). Drafted before names like Kaleb Johnson, Tony Pollard, and Brian Robinson Jr., guys who may end up with a larger share of their team's carries, the upside is reflected in his ADP. I don't believe he's overrated by much, but if you're expecting anything more than a top 30 RB that can be an RB2 in good matchups, you may end up being disappointed when Hunt or Mitchell steal a few more carries than expected.
His name being here does not reflect his talent or potential; there are just too many issues that are happening for a rookie during the off-season. Dealing with some issues off the field, he has remained unsigned and unable to practice with the team. While projected to be the team's lead back, the combination of a potential suspension and a slow start to the season has me considering other options like: Travis Etienne, Jaylen Warren, and Cam Skattebo. It also doesn't help that this CLE offense is lacking a long-term option at QB and the offense may end up in the bottom half of the league. However, if he doesn't end up missing any games, the upside is worth the risk and is the main deterrent for me from drafting him at his current ADP