As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found eight players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Three will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and three will be lower.
In the couple of seasons in CHI, Swift has been averaging over 230 rushing attempts, around 1,000 yards, six touchdowns, and around 50 targets. That isn't top-12 RB production, but it's top-20, and while Monangai will be involved, Swift is the 1A of a Ben Johnson offense that featured Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery in DET. With multiple offensive starters dealing with injuries (even Swift), there's uncertainty on what the offense will look like in the first couple of games. Potentially, Swift may get a slight boost in touches if Kyle Monangai is not 100%, which makes him a good value as an RB2 that you can draft after names like Travis Etienne and Bucky Irving.
Despite flashing RB1 potential, Henderson had an inconsistent rookie season where he had double-digit rush attempts in ten games and surpassed 60 rush yards in seven games but only scored in four of them. Henderson also failed to be a receiving threat, failing to reach 30 receiving yards in 14 games making him a boom-or-bust option that is likely behind Rhamondre Stevenson if last year's playoffs were any indication. Plus, he's been dealing with an injury since late August and may miss Week 1 and more. With all that said, I believe he's now in "underrated" territory if he's being drafted as an RB3 after Tony Pollard and Jaylen Warren, who may have a higher floor but a lower ceiling.
While he was hyped up last season, Jacory Croskey-Merritt failed to reach double-digit rush attempts in nine games and rushed for less than 50 yards in 12 games. While he will continue to share touches with Rachaad White and may not be a receiving option, I think if the WAS offense can bounce back to its 2024 form, he will be a solid RB3/4 and a flex option in favorable matchups. With Chris Rodriguez Jr. in JAX, that frees up over 100 carries, which I assume will go mostly to Croskey-Merritt, who rushed for over 800 yards in 175 carries during a lost season. I don't expect RB2 production, but being drafted after names like Kyle Monangai and Jonathan Brooks makes him a slight value.
While my opinion has been changing recently because there are questions about his Week 1 availability, his ADP has dropped into a more reasonable range, and I consider him fairly valued after names like Javonte Williams and Breece Hall. As a top-15 RB, I can live with that without being excited to draft him, but flirting with the top-12 is when it's not worth the potential upside. The team added a very competent Tyler Allgeier to split the carries on a rebuilding team, and I don't see Love being the bellcow option at all this season. Sure, he has the receiving ability to be an upper-tier RB2, but I prefer the names above and will likely not have him on any of my rosters.
This is a tough one because I can understand the bull case for an RB who was the clear RB2 behind Travis Etienne, who will now have an opportunity to be the lead rushing option on a good offense. He flashed some ability and may still be an RB2/3 on limited touches, but I have concerns about the arrival of Chris Rodriguez Jr., who had over 100 carries last season for WAS and may take the goal-line carries. Don't forget that Trevor Lawrence ran for 9 rushing touchdowns last season and Lequint Allen will still be involved. While I still view Tuten as a low-end RB2, I don't think the upside is worth drafting him over names like Jadarian Price and Quinton Judkins.
After one of his best seasons, Jaylen Warren showed he was a capable flex option, finishing with almost 1,000 rushing yards while being a receiving option (over 40 targets in consecutive seasons). With Kenneth Gainwell gone, the team brought in Rico Dowdle to split carries and potentially be the 1A of the offense. They also brought in Michael Pittman and rookie WR Germie Bernard to help boost the passing offense. I worry that Warren's role within the offense will be less as a rusher and receiver. Currently, Warren is drafted ahead of Dowdle and other names like Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson, and I would prefer to go into another direction.