08/04/24
As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found four players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Two will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and two will be lower.
Last year, he broke the stigma that tight ends aren't fantasy-relevant during their rookie season. As the #1 tight end, he was the only one to score double-digit touchdowns. No other player had more than six touchdowns. Now, that doesn't mean he's touchdown-dependent. If you give him six touchdowns instead of ten, LaPorta ends up as the #2 tight end. Doesn't this make him a top-five option then? Yes, if he's a top-three option drafted in the fourth round, I would be on board with him. However, he's been going as high as the end of the second round and somewhere before or right after Travis Kelce. Remember, Kelce is the first option for the KC offense competing with Rashee Rice. LaPorta competes for targets with Amon-Ra St. Brown, a consensus top-ten WR. I understand if you have him before names like Mark Andrews or Dalton Kincaid, but drafting him as the number one TE is too expensive, in my opinion.
The stigma used to be rookie tight ends are unreliable fantasy football contributors. However, Sam LaPorta's historic rookie season has changed that, and we're seeing the tide shift in people's opinion. Being drafted as a top-12 option over names like Dalton Schultz, Dallas Goedert, and Pat Freiermuth is drafting him at his upside. You also hope he immediately flashes unless you're okay with the slow start. Of course, he's an elite prospect who may be the second option on the offense. He's also competing against Jakobie Meyers, who had over 100 targets last season. With Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew throwing the ball, I can't help but be concerned about what the third option on that offense will look like. The risk outweighs the upside unless you're near the double-digit rounds. However, he would be a great second option if rostering two tight ends. You can bench him at the start of the season, and if he ends up being the best guy, you can plug him in as your weekly starter.
Maybe I'm just a fan, but I'm not concerned with last season's disappointing performance. He had some bad games and is competing for targets with Zay Flowers, but seeing him drafted after guys like Dalton Kincaid and Trey McBride seems strange. It's not egregious, but to get Andrews in the 5th round feels good since his history as the primary receiving threat on the offense. He was on pace for 100 targets last season and has been on that pace for the previous four seasons. The addition of Derrick Henry certainly indicates a commitment to the run, which may reduce the overall passing volume. Still, unless Flowers becomes the clear #1 option for Lamar Jackson, Andrews will have the upside to finish as the TE1 and a top-three option, no matter the scoring format.
When you're getting this low in the TE rankings, it's safe to say that this is about as speculative as you can get in fantasy football (not that most of my ideas aren't). Also, I am fine with other TEs drafted where they have been. He's drafted outside of the top 20, if at all, and I think he can be a streaming option as a last-round pick or a TE2 if you need a bye-week replacement early in the season. He will be competing for targets against Mike Williams and rookie WR Malachi Corley. Neither option projects to be consistent, so Conklin will have good games occasionally with Rodgers throwing the ball. He's nothing more than my last pick in drafts, but he is worth mentioning as a flier, and I can cut him after Week 2 if he doesn't make an impact.