As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found four players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Two will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and two will be lower.
Coming off his best season, he led the MIA offense with Tyreek Hill in catches and touchdowns while finishing second in targets and receiving yards. He now joins PIT, where he will join OC Arthur Smith, where he will compete for targets with D.K. Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth. He will be the starting TE, but I do think Freiermuth will also be involved, and that limits Smith's upside as a top 12 TE. I would feel more comfortable with guys like Jake Ferguson and Dalton Kincaid, who are on better offenses. That said, he's still a top 15 TE with upside if he becomes the clear second receiving option in PIT, so I'm not too low on him, and have no problem drafting him if he falls a round.
Finishing second on the team in targets and his highest touchdown season since 2018, he has outperformed expectations and will have a role within this offense. The team added Deebo Samuel to help replace Olamide Zaccheaus and will compete to be the second receiving option. TE Ben Sinnott may also steal some targets, but is a clear backup to Ertz, giving a floor that's worthy of a late-round pick in PPR scoring leagues. The WAS offense is good, and he could be a top 15 TE, but I'm curious if he's better as a waiver wire pickup, and we draft Isaiah Likely or Brenton Strange, who have a higher upside.
If you're following me, I'm sorry for being so predictable. I don't feel too high on any other TE, including Mark Andrews, but I just like talking about him. I'm not saying he's a top-five TE anymore, nor should he be ahead of guys like T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, or Travis Kelce. I wouldn't be upset if you'd prefer David Njoku or Evan Engram either, but he's in that tier of players with the upside to a top-five season. I must point out the touchdown regression coming after scoring 11 last season, when he scored 11 the two seasons prior combined. The injury to Isaiah Likely will give him a stronger start to the season, but I do see Likely competing for more targets. In the end, he's a mid-round option that I feel confident as my week-to-week starter.
Last season was disappointing, partially because of Dak Prescott's injury. Ferguson also didn't score a touchdown compared to five in 2023. The arrival of George Pickens will likely have Ferguson as the 3rd receiving option on a pass-heavy offense, which has him hovering around top 12 TE territory. He's not underrated by much, and I wanted to highlight him as one of the best late-round options to target, considering the potential volume of that offense negates the downgraded role. With people taking Jonnu Smith or Colston Loveland over him, I prefer Ferguson's history over a player on a new team.