As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found four players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Two will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and two will be lower.
Despite finishing as the TE2 last season, I don't believe Kyle Pitts to be a top-10 TE. His production was inflated by one game where he accounted for 17% of his total receiving yards and 60% of his total touchdowns! While he has nine games surpassing 50 receiving yards, I think he will be a great streaming option, but I don't believe you'll get the week-to-week consistency that you would hope for from a top-10 TE. Yes, he's the second receiving option on the team, and that may give him enough volume to be a weekly start. He's certainly within the top-12 range, so it's not like I'll never draft him, but I currently have him in the same tier as guys like George Kittle and Travis Kelce, who certainly have questions but are typically drafted after him.
I'm not that low on him compared with the consensus, and I expect him to be a top-12 TE during the first few games of the season, as I anticipate rookie WR Makai Lemon will take time to have a consistent role in the offense. Don't forget that Goedert had a career-high 11 touchdowns while failing to reach five since 2019. I think even with five touchdowns, he will not be able to return top-12 value. Of course, with no A.J. Brown, that definitely boosts his potential upside as the second receiving option within this offense, but I also expect this offense to run the ball (less than 3,300 passing yards in consecutive games). They also added WR depth to absorb a few vacated targets, and I prefer other names like Isaiah Likely or Dalton Kincaid, even if that means getting them a round early.
It's weird to really like a player that you may not end up drafting in any of your leagues because everyone else likes him too. It's hard not to, finishing with 75 catches and over 800 yards in your rookie season despite the rough end of the season. With a healthy Daniel Jones and WR Michael Pittman leaving in the offseason, this indicates that Warren will have a higher target share within the offense. However, I think WRs Alec Pierce and Josh Downs will also get additional targets, which keeps Warren out of the tier of Brock Bowers/Trey McBride. With that said, he's my TE3 ahead of Colston Loveland and a clear tier above guys like Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta.
This is a tough one because I have not been a fan of drafting Travis Kelce in recent years, and I'm not saying he's a clear value for his ADP either. However, he is still a productive TE, with over 100 targets in 11 straight seasons and over 800 receiving yards last season. Rashee Rice is the clear first option in the passing game, and Kenneth Walker's arrival signals the offense wants to run the ball more. Still, Kelce is arguably the second option ahead of Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton. If you're drafting in the double-digit rounds and Kelce is still there with names like Jake Ferguson, Mark Andrews, and Dalton Kincaid, I would consider Kelce a higher-floor option that will still be involved in the redzone.