08/04 /24
As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found eight players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Three will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and three will be lower.
After an inconsistent season, he joins the HOU offense along with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who will compete for targets with Diggs. Dalton Schultz will also get a few, so there are likely games where Diggs will not be the WR2 he's projected to be, somewhere between the WR20-24 range in most leagues, as the second HOU WR drafted. I think he's a decent WR3, but even if you have him above Dell as the WR2, he can't be in the top 20, with names like D.J. Moore, Michael Pittman, and Cooper Kupp still available. The second half of last season was unexpected and exposed the floor (Finishing with under 50 receiving yards in five of his last seven games) that we should have realized after being a key piece earlier in the year. While he'll have good games, I want to avoid drafting him in the first five rounds in most league formats for a high-end WR3.
Rookie WRs are capable of being fantasy-relevant in their rookie seasons. While Nabers will have all the opportunity on the NYG offense, I wonder if that's enough to warrant a top-24 selection with names like D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, and Devonta Smith still available. He will be the primary receiving threat on an offense where the quarterback hasn't thrown for 3,500 yards once in his career. The volume alone makes him at least a WR3, but you're drafting him to be able to take advantage of the volume every week as a WR2. There's little competition for targets, with players like Darius Slayton and Wan'Dale Robinson last season, so he has a higher floor than some of the other WR3-tiered players. But with so many different options in the 4th/5th round, I would prefer a more established situation even with the lower upside.
Drafted within the WR3 range, people are excited about the potential upside of being the secondary receiving threat for a KC offense behind Travis Kelce. With last year's leading wide receiver Rashee Rice facing a possible suspension during the season, there's an opportunity for someone to take advantage of it. The team also drafted rookie WR Xavier Worthy, who will immediately compete for targets, so there's not much upside for Brown unless Rice misses a significant portion of the season. After his breakout season in 2021, Brown has yet to play a full season or surpass 750 receiving yards in a season. He's still a solid contributor, but I believe he will be a more important player in real life rather than fantasy football. I would rather draft names like Diontae Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and Christian Watson instead, who are around the same ADP.
He finished as a WR1 last season, and my biggest concern this off-season is whether Baker Mayfield will return as the starting quarterback. With Mayfield returning, I'm confident that Evans will continue to get 1,000 receiving yards and catch 7-10 touchdowns. Sure, losing their OC to the Carolina Panthers does cause concern if this offense will be able to repeat what it's done. However, Mike Evans has a history of being dominant, with multiple coordinators and head coaches throughout his career, so it's reasonable to think that not much will change. Drafted after guys like Nico Collins and Brandon Aiyuk is reasonable, as Evans is an older player who we expect will lose a step. Still, I'm comfortable with him as my WR1 or elite WR2 option if he's there in the 3rd or 4th round.
It surprised me that the offensive coordinator and quarterback change over the off-season is enough to make me believe that George Pickens is a top-20 receiver with top-12 upside. Last season, this PIT offense was awful, and Pickens finished outside of the top 24 in half PPR. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are not great options (still an upgrade), and this is likely a run-heavy offense, but with Diontae Johnson gone, that clears up 87 targets that are up for grabs, and the team drafted rookie WR Roman Wilson and signed Van Jefferson. That shows me that the team believes in Pickens taking the next step and will have as much opportunity as possible. What separates him is that we saw the flashes of WR1 upside last season, and I prefer him in the 4th/5th round over names like Devonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, and D.J. Moore.
After four straight seasons with 1,000 receiving yards and at least eight touchdowns, last season was incredibly disappointing. Lockett failed to reach 900 yards and scored only five touchdowns despite a similar target share and playing every game. It's also fair to mention that last year's rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Ngijba may take another step, and the new head coach may give him more opportunities. However, to say Lockett should be drafted outside the top 45 WRs is extreme since he may still be the second option in the passing game. He no longer has the top 24 upside in previous seasons, but he's still an excellent WR4 or flex option in the double-digit rounds if those touchdown numbers return to the 6-8 range. At his current ADP, I prefer him over names such as Courtland Sutton, Jameson Williams, and Brian Thomas Jr.