As I make my projections, there are always unique discrepancies between the consensus rankings and my own. Sometimes, they can be negligible, and others are vast. This year, I found eight players whom I have a larger discrepancy on where they should be ranked (Half PPR). Three will be players I have ranked higher than consensus and three will be lower.
It's hard to consider someone who's being drafted as a top-10 WR as underrated, but I think he's one of the few players who has the upside to finish as the WR1. He has four straight seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Joining a new team where they will be the clear WR1 and the focal point of the passing offense, replacing over 140 targets between Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, who are not part of the team anymore. Sure, the team added Romeo Doubs, who is the WR2 and will be involved every week, but with Drake Maye throwing for over 4,300 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, it wouldn't surprise me if Brown were to finish with over 1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Coming off a disappointing season where he missed a chunk of the season while QB Jayden Daniels played half the games McLaurin did play, it's tough to carry anything from last season into this one. The team let Deebo Samuel go in free agency and signed Stefon Diggs, but McLaurin is the clear WR1 on this offense. During the 2024 season, he had a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns, and while I don't project double-digit touchdowns, I expect him to bounce back to around 6-7. He's been a 1,000-yard receiver five straight seasons (not counting last season), and I would rather draft him as my WR2/3 over other names going before him like Jameson Williams, D.J. Moore, and Davante Adams.
This one is a little riskier, and I wonder if I'm too high on him considering the starting QB Daniel Jones is coming off an Achilles injury and the team still has Tyler Warren and Josh Downs to compete for targets. Also, don't forget that Pierce has never gotten more than 50 catches in one season, and last season he barely reached 1,000 yards. With Michael Pittman leaving to PIT, that leaves 100+ targets to be redistributed, and I anticipate Pierce getting a bump in targets. They also gave him a long-term extension and indicated he will be one of the top receiving options. I don't expect him to be like Jameson Williams or Christian Watson, but I prefer him as my WR3/4 over names like Chris Godwin and D.K. Metcalf.
This is tough, as I am a fan of McConkey and I think he's the WR1 within the LAC offense. The problem is that this isn't a top-10 passing offense, and Quentin Johnston is a good player and is closer to WR1B than WR2 in this offense. I also think his role will be similar to last season, which caps McConkey's upside. With consecutive seasons of over 100 targets and six touchdowns, his inconsistency last season was tough, as he finished with less than 50 receiving yards in ten games and fewer than five catches in nine. I expect him to bounce back, but he's not in the top-20 where he's currently drafted. If it's a few spots lower, then I'm okay with it, but I would rather draft names like Emeka Egbuka or Zay Flowers, who I think have a higher floor as your WR2.
Despite the new opportunity to be the clear WR1 on a good offense, it feels automatic to consider that player as a top-15 option. However, this offense has had fewer than 3,800 passing yards and 30 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. They like to run the ball (over 530 team attempts), and there will be games that Josh Allen throws only one touchdown. They didn't lose any big pieces of their offense, and while Moore is capable, I don't see him being a consistent top-20 option. He may be a 1,000-yard receiver and lead the team in touchdowns, but I also see Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid involved depending on the matchup. I prefer Moore as my WR3 after names like Terry McLaurin and Jameson Williams, who I believe have a higher upside.
This is not a reflection of the player, but of his situation within the team. Currently, he's drafted as a low-end WR2, which is certainly possible. He will be the WR1 on an improving offense with a new head coach. However, this offense failed to throw for more than 3,200 yards and 15 touchdowns, which is less than 200 yards and a touchdown per game. Even if they do average that, that would still be below average, and I don't expect a rookie WR to immediately account for 30/40% of the receiving yards and touchdowns. He may certainly get there by the second half of the season, but his ADP suggests that he should be there sooner than that. I prefer to draft names like Parker Washington or Christian Watson, who I anticipate will have stronger starts to the season.